October 16, 2026

TURKEY

by Amberin Zaman

Welcome back to AL-MONITOR Turkey.

There was plenty of drama this week, notably between Ankara and Baku centered on Azerbaijan’s new restrictions on religious garb at government-run schools, which I examined in some detail here.

Thanks for reading!

Amberin 🐶💗

Leading the news

A shop owner assists one of his customers at the Malta bazaar in the Fatih district in Istanbul, on Dec. 6, 2024. — OZAN KOSE/AFP via Getty Images

The conventional wisdom was that Hakan Fidan’s meeting with Azerbaijani strongman Ilham Aliyev on the sidelines of a regional summit in Baku on Thursday would help reduce tensions. Fidan spoke of the “unbreakable bond of friendship and brotherhood between our two leaders” in front of a gaggle of reporters. However, Azerbaijan continued to escalate with an international arrest warrant for Turkish columnist Celal Ciftci over his calls for Aliyev to be overthrown. Ciftci subsequently deleted the offensive tweets.

There’s been a lot of Aliyev bashing, particularly among Islamists in Turkey, over the new rules that amount to a headscarf ban for pupils and their teachers and that have sparked widespread protests in Azerbaijan. I still don’t believe this will lead to any meaningful rupture as there is way too much at stake for both sides. Gas and oil pipelines, defense deals galore and Turkey’s plans to secure access to Central Asian markets via Azerbaijan hinge on maintaining the status quo.

Some pundits argue that the spat benefits Armenia and that it won’t be long before Turkey opens its land borders with Azerbaijan’s historical foe and establishes diplomatic ties. Fatih Erbakan, the head of the small but influential Islamist New Welfare Party, went as far as to compare Armenia with Azerbaijan, saying “I regret to say that even Armenia is not doing what you are doing.”

Thankfully, cooler heads prevail in Yerevan. If anything, Armenian officials understand that if Ankara loses its pull over Baku, this will make Azerbaijan even more dangerous. That’s why Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has been assiduously wooing Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the belief that normalized relations would make it less likely that Turkey would back further Azerbaijani military operations against his country as I outlined here.

My Azerbaijani sources told me that Turkey was in fact planning to open the land border to third-country nationals this month, a pledge that was made four years ago. One can’t help but wonder whether that’s part of the reason for Aliyev’s obstreperous behavior — that he wants to sabotage the move. All should be clearer when the next Turkic States Summit, scheduled to be held on Oct. 29–30 in Ankara, kicks off. If Aliyev is a no-show, then we know things are dicier than I’ve interpreted them to be.

Other top stories

Son of Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan Bilal Erdogan addresses the audience during a press conference  in Istanbul on December 22, 2025. (Yasin AKGUL / AFP via Getty Images)

I have to admit I was amused to see that Erdogan’s younger son, Bilal, who is often cast as the Turkish leader’s successor, was hosting Saida Mirziyoyeva, the daughter of Uzbekistan’s authoritarian president Shavkat Mirziyoyev, this week. Svelte Saida has headed the Presidential Administration, whatever that is, since last year. She is also vice-chair of the former Soviet Turkic republic’s Security Council and was received by Erdogan as well. Uzbekistan has, since 2021, allowed schoolgirls to wear headscarves made of white or light-colored fabric "in an approved traditional style,” but the full hijab is still verboten. Fun fact: Aliyev and the Uzbek president signed a Treaty on Eternal Friendship this year.

Global market fallout from the asset fund management scandal has arrived. On Oct. 16, Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) announced that it would not increase its Turkish share portfolio until Turkey proves that it is serious about cleaning up its capital markets’ mess and warned that Turkey could be downgraded from emerging-market to frontier-market status if the reforms are insufficient. Turkish stocks fell by more than 3% following the news.

The most notable action Turkey has taken so far critics would say has been to silence and jail brave colleagues who doggedly dig up more dirt. The Committee to Protect Journalists reported that at least 22 journalists had been arrested or detained under Turkey’s disinformation law during 2026 alone. Turkish advocacy groups cite higher figures. Things got uglier this week after police raided the country’s main opposition news channel Halk TV and handed the keys to a government trustee. Ezgi Akin has that story.

She also reported on the arrest by Syrian authorities of a dastardly militia leader, Mihrac Ural, an Arab Alawite from Turkey’s Antakya province who served as one of Assad’s bloodiest henchmen. Turkey accuses him of masterminding the 2013 bombing that left 52 people dead in the border town of Reyhanli. Unal was at one time known to have had cordial relations with the PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan when he too was enjoying the Baath regime’s hospitality in Syria before his ejection and subsequent capture in 1999.

Turkish security officials announced that the PKK had evacuated four camps in Iraqi Kurdistan. Ezgi explained why this matters as Ocalan and his commanders in the field pursue negotiations with Turkey. A sticking point in the talks that are meant to result in amnesties and other accommodations for thousands of PKK fighters and overseas cadres is that the militants have been transferring their weapons to other unnamed Kurdish groups.

Also on our radar

Barin Kayaoglu breaks down why Turkey avoids blaming Russia for Black Sea attacks that have struck Turkish-linked vessels in recent weeks.

Ezgi waded in, so to speak, into Istanbul’s horrific flash floods that left three people dead. Critics pointed the finger of blame at shoddy infrastructure and the government’s mega-development projects that have depleted the city’s forests. Hopefully the COP31 climate change conference that is due to be held in Antalya from Nov. 9–20 will help focus minds. This Al Jazeera report gives you a real sense of the mayhem.

The BBC has a nice story about the world's oldest shipwreck that was just discovered off the coast of Antalya. Maybe delegates will be offered a tour.

Finally, don’t forget to sign up for Nazlan Ertan’s fabulous AL-Monitor Istanbul newsletter, your best guide to Turkey’s cultural life, relayed with wit and verve.